Sunday, 2 January 2011

Rambling political predictions for 2011

Sky's Adam Boulton has published his 2010 predictions (he performed smugly well, as expected) and the latest set for 2011.  Conservative blogger Tory Totty has taken these new questions and, like Boulton, is keeping her answers secret until this time next year.

Out of no disrespect to their secrecy, but in the spirit of transparency, I am going to pin my colours to the mast now, so here goes...

Who will win the Oldham East by-election on 13th January?
Liberal Democrats
Will there be a General Election?
Not in the UK
Who will be leader of Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats?
David Cameron, Ed Milliband (on life support) and Nick Clegg
Will Barack Obama come to the Royal Wedding ?
Will Catherine, nee Middleton, get pregnant ?
No (and a tedious question)
Who will be first minister of Scotland after the 5th May election?
Iain Gray, by a whisker
Will Britain vote for AV changing the way MPs are elected ?
No (but it will be extremely close)
Who will be the first Cabinet ministers to resign/be sacked? Who will replace them?
Almost as soon as David Laws' disciplinary review is completed, he shall return; I'm almost tempted to go out on a limb and say as Secretary of State for Health but it appears that in spite of the unpopularity of the coalition's (un-mandated) healthcare reforms, Lansley has full backing, so I'll say, with a heavy heart, in place of Ken Clarke
Will water cannon be used on demonstrators in mainland Britain ?
Will taxes go up or down in the Budget ?
Broadly neutral but if anything, marginally up for the wealthiest and down for the poorest
How long will the big freeze go on ?
Only heaven knows...
Will Ed Miliband get married ?
No. And who cares?
Will Gordon Brown leave parliament ?
No. The words "Ted" and "Heath" spring to mind.
Will David Cameron start tweeting ?
Definitely not.
Will the Chilcot Inquiry bring credible closure to Britain’s Iraq wounds?
No, regrettably
Will General Petraeus still command ISAF in Afghanistan ?
Will News Corporation buy all of BSkyB?
No, but a saving face compromise will be reached that gives News Corp greater control of BSkyB
Will there be military action against Iran ?
No (I pray)
Will Julian Assange end up in jail in the USA?
Sadly not
Will Peter Mandelson go on Strictly Come Dancing?
Will Russia or China be a bigger headache for ‘the West’?
China, as it continues to shirk its regional responsibilities (e.g. North Korea) and expand its rapacious search for commodities

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